Augur Accurately Predicts 2018 US Elections

The blockchain-based prediction market Augur, whose native token REP is ranked #48 with a market cap of USD 163 million as of 7 November 2018, accurately predicted the 6 November United States elections. During the morning of the election, before any polls closed, Augur predicted a 74% chance that Democrats would take the House, and a 90% chance that Republicans would take the Senate.

After President Trump’s declaration hours ago of a “Big Victory” after the Repulicans won the Senate, Augur’s predictions have now been confirmed as fact.

There were USD 1.366 million of bets at stake on the ‘Which party will control the House after 2018 US Midterm Election?‘ prediction market. This represented 48.5% of the USD 2.804 million of money at stake across all of Augur’s prediction markets. Even though the House has been confirmed as a win for the Democrats, the odds for the Democrats winning sits at 97%, leaving a 3% spread that investors can easily profit on, so money continues to pour into the contract. However, the prediction market will not be closing out and disbursing funds until 10 December 2018, so users will have to wait for their profits.

The Augur prediction market for the Senate has much less money at stake, just over USD 10,000, likely since pollsters agreed that it was nearly certain the Republicans would win the Senate. Thus, less money is staked on Augur prediction markets where outcomes are more certain.

Based on data collected by The Block Crypto, it seems that Augur’s election predictions are a reflection of forecasts by expert pollsters like FiveThirtyEight. As FiveThirtyEight adjusted its forecast for the House during election night, the Augur prediction market followed in lockstep.

The prediction markets for the 2020 United States Presidential election have already begun, with just over USD 5,000 staked on the market for whether Donald Trump will be re-elected. Currently, Augur thinks Trump only has a 36% chance.

Aside from political election predictions, the biggest markets on Augur are for cryptocurrency price forecasts. USD 552,000 is staked on whether Ethereum will be USD 500 or more at the end of 2018, USD 103,000 is staked on whether Ethereum will exceed USD 1,000 at the end of 2018, USD 279,000 is staked on whether the REP token will exceed USD 32 at the end of 2018, and USD 39,000 is staked on whether Bitcoin will exceed USD 20,000 at the end of 2018. Due to the continued cryptocurrency bear market, Augur is predicting that most of these questions will verify as false. When aggregated, the Augur markets for cryptocurrency price forecasts have about USD 1 million at stake.


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Author: Zachary
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The Most Expensive Private Lawsuit In Crypto Is Settled

A lawsuit over Augur, a decentralized platform for prediction markets on real-world events, has come to an end as court records show that the case was dismissed on Oct. 12.

Matthew Liston, the former CEO of Augur, filed the lawsuit back in April, alleging that three other founding members of Augur, Jack Peterson, Joseph Charles Krug, and Jeremy Gardner committed acts of fraud, oppression, and malice along with investor Joseph Ball Costello. According to Liston, the alleged “fraud” resulted in his forced removal from the project and the company in 2014.

Liston was seeking a total of $152 million on damages at the time, which made the case possibly the most expensive private lawsuit in the cryptocurrency space so far.

The most recent court records show that the court of California in San Francisco county has ordered to take the case management conference “off calendar,” after O. Shane Balloun of Balloun Law requested to dismiss the case “with prejudice,” on behalf of Liston, meaning that they would have the case dismissed permanently.

In an email response to Forbes by Liston, he declined to comment but confirmed that “the case was settled.”

Members of Augur did not immediately respond to requests for comment regarding the case.

Another court record published on Sept. 6 indicates that negotiations on a settlement were in progress.

“…the parties have reached a settlement in principle and are working diligently to finalize a written settlement agreement,” the document wrote.

As a project built upon on the ethereum blockchain that allows its users to bet on outcomes of real-world events, Augur has received wide attention since its birth. It is advised by ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin and the co-founder of Lightning Labs, Elizabeth Stark. The project was officially launched in July and is expected to have some major updates released soon, according to a post published on Oct. 4.


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Author: Muyao Shen
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