Why This Might Just Be the Bottom for Bitcoin (BTC)

If you could have suggested to any crypto trader and enthusiast earlier this year that Bitcoin (BTC) would drop to current levels of $3,700 he or she might as well declared you insane. But the reality remains that we are where we are due to a few factors that will be stated below.

Current Values Had been Predicted Loosely 

Heading into Thanksgiving, there was the bullish side of the argument that had postulated that the discounted values of all cryptocurrencies will lead to a bounce and have BTC at levels above $4,700. This theory had been based on the fact that the Hash Wars were over. There was also another camp that was calling for $3,000.

Earlier Predictions of the Bear Market

Veteran Bitcoin and digital analyst Willy Woo, uses the NVT signal/ratio to analyze the future of BTC. The NVT ratio that was co-created by Dmitry Kalichki and Woo, is simply the Network Valuation divided by the Transaction Value flowing through the blockchain and then smoothed using a moving average.

In an October 26th tweet, Willy Woo had used this ratio to conclude that we were in the middle of a bear market. This in turn meant that we had a few months of Bitcoin falling before declaring a bottom. The exact date of the bottom was not known but the calls were for some time between April and May 2019.

Bitcoin Cash Hash Wars Has Accelerated The Process of Reaching a Bottom

Unbeknownst to many analysts, was the storm that was the Bitcoin Cash Hash Wars that saw BTC fall from $6,300 levels only two weeks ago to current $3,700 values. This event has indeed accelerated the process of reaching the possible end of the bear market that had been predicted for mid-2019.

No Trading During the Thanksgiving Weekend

This weekend also played a part to play in the declining value of BTC. Thanksgiving is used as a marker to kick-start spending during the Holiday Season. After Thanksgiving, individuals take out their money to buy discounted items on Black Friday and Cyber Monday. There is also the pending Christmas period and New Years where spending and travelling is the norm.

It is therefore not surprising that the trade volume this weekend was low. Traders might have simply cashed out and thus contributing to the decline of BTC.

What Next?

With many crypto traders either capitulating or continuing to hold, the next few weeks of the year will be crucial in determining the next course of action in the crypto markets.

To note is that there are the CME Bitcoin Futures that expire this Friday, the 30th of November. What is normally the case when these contracts expire, is that the value of BTC drops a few percentage points. However, one can argue that BTC has fallen too hard for the expiring futures contracts to make a bigger dent on its value.

In conclusion, the bear market had been predicted to last into 2019 but the emergence of the unexpected Hash Wars probably accelerated the process of reaching a bottom for BTC. The current levels had been predicted loosely but for mid next year. The next few weeks will be crucial in determining if this is indeed a bottom and before Bakkt launches on the 24th of January. Therefore, being cautious in the crypto markets moving forward might not be a bad idea.

Author: John P. Njui
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The Bitcoin price bottom is “near,” but the largest cryptocurrency still shows signs of being “overbought,” new research released October 1 claims.


In the latest installment of his ‘Bitcoin Value Indicator,’ tech commentator Hans Hauge brought together multiple factors to create an overview of the Bitcoin price which he says allows investors to “understand what’s going on.”

Hauge notes that increasingly strong technical fundamentals are contrasting with continuing price deflation, suggesting a price bottom will soon appear.

The number of unique addresses using the network, hash rate, and total transaction numbers are all up on previous readings — while prices remain down — he summarizes.

“Bitcoin is probably still overpriced, but the fundamentals are steadily improving while the average price of Bitcoin has continued to fall,” he wrote concluding the findings.

“Make sure you’re ready to make your move when the time is right.”


Hauge’s technical reasoning paints a decidedly more conservative picture than many sources from within the cryptocurrency industry.

September, for example, saw investor Mike Novogratz publicly call a “bottom” for BTC/USD, a prediction which it has yet to test based on prices at the time.

Others are eagerly awaiting an end-of-year rush for Bitcoin, claiming prices could still expand considerably in Q4. Fundstrat analyst Tom Lee, bullish as ever despite sideways action continuing for months, told the media late August that a return $20,000 was still possible by year-end.

Hauge meanwhile did not touch on the current debate surrounding institutional investors entering Bitcoin markets en masse to dramatically increase activity precisely due to the sideways action of the past six months.

As Bitcoinist also reports today, commentaries remain mixed on the concept, while financial sources in the US are already telling mainstream media that institutional money is entering through less conspicuous routes.

“The Wild West days of crypto are really turning the corner,” Chicago-based investment lead Bobby Cho forecast to Bloomberg.

Author: Wilma Woo
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Bitcoin Mercantile Exchange (BitMEX) CEO Arthur Hayes says the Bitcoin price must still drop to $5000 before ending its 2018 bear market.



In comments which echo other prominent trading figures — such as Tone Vays — Hayes told CNBC yesterday that, despite prices rallying this week, sentiment will fizzle out and Bitcoin will continue falling lower.  “I don’t actually think we’ve seen the worst; I think this is a very strong rally on good volume and we definitely could see $8000 or $9000 and maybe just short of $10,000,” he forecast, continuing:

…I would like to see us test $5000 to really see if we’ve put a bottom in.

Bitcoin generated considerable excitement both inside and beyond the cryptocurrency industry on June 16 when prices gained around 12 percent in one hour — seemingly without prior motive.

While initially skeptical, many commentators have since begun to eye the uptick as the start of a stronger period of growth after months of decline.


Hayes, however, remains unconvinced about its longevity. “We’ve been here before earlier in the spring; we rallied from about $5800 to the high $9000 level but didn’t quite crack $10,000 – I think similar action will happen this time,” he continued.

Sharing his uncertainty, Vays had previously predicted that BTC/USD must dip below the significant $5000 barrier in order to prime sentiment for beating 2017’s all-time highs.

Beyond the short term, however, the sense of optimism remains broadly unfazed.

Hayes reiterated his faith that prices could top $50,000 by the end of the year after sufficient downside. “I think everybody is taking a little chill time and coe Q3 and Q4 will come back and the party will start again,” he commented about the rest of the year.

While Bitcoin remains around 12 percent up on the start of the week, altcoins meanwhile have yet to catch up, sustaining conspicuous losses in both BTC and USD terms.

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