Bitcoin Etfs Are a ‘Terrible Idea’, Says Bitcoin Advocate Andreas Antonopoulos

Bitcoin advocate Andreas Antonopoulos offered his opinion on Bitcoin ETFs in a rather foreboding video released on August 14.TIP

He first explained the concept of an ETF or exchange-traded fund as a fund that has a custodian or manager that creates a special financial instrument that is similar to a stock. In the case of Bitcoin ETFs the instrument is a fund that holds Bitcoin and sells shares in a bitcoin reserve that represents the price of bitcoin as a stock that can be traded through regular brokerage accounts on the stock market.

The custodian holds the actual Bitcoin and the customer buys a share in the funds without having to navigate the often rigorous and complex process of registering for cryptocurrency exchanges, completing KYC, and familiarizing themselves with encrypted keys and wallets.

The cryptocurrency space has lauded the inevitable arrival of ETFs as a crucial event that will greatly increase the market cap of cryptocurrency and essentially save cryptocurrency investors and traders from the current bear market,  taking cryptocurrency to the next level as a financial market. In his video Antonopoulos outlined in no uncertain terms what he sees as the dangers of Bitcoin ETFs, citing the market manipulation that took over the price action of gold as an example.

“I’m going to burst your bubble. I know a lot of people want to see Bitcoin ETFs because ‘lambos’ and ‘to the moon’ and all that. I think it’s a terrible idea. I still think it’s going to happen, but I think it’s a terrible idea. I’m actually against Bitcoin ETFs.”

Apart from the potential of increased market manipulation by major market makers as is seen in the commodities markets, Antonopoulos is concerned over the issue of consensus.

Bitcoin holders essentially have the right to vote on certain issues based on which exchanges they choose to trust their coins with, which fork they support, etc.LIONBIT

“If there is ever a fork debate, which is very likely to happen again in any cryptocurrency, then the fund that controls that Bitcoin now has a very large voice. Their shareholders don’t. They don’t get to choose which fork the fund is going to follow in a Bitcoin debate…

We already saw that level of influence during the August 1st fork, user activated software forks, Bitcoin cash, the scaling debate… Large custodial exchanges had a very strong voice in the ecosystem. They were able to decide if they were going to support or not on behalf of 10 million customers… an ETF will do that and it will do that on an even bigger scale”

Centralized fund managers having millions of votes in the Bitcoin ecosystem allowing for manipulation in price action, scaling debates, and forks is the main concern for the Antonopoulous who foresees disagreements over forks between major ETFs leading to splits forming currencies akin to “corporate Bitcoin.”

In a situation where authorities are pressuring the community to make Bitcoin less private and more transparent, it could be the case that an ETF would feel obliged to comply with the regulatory pressure and refuse to adopt privacy measures, creating a separate, corporate Bitcoin market.

The prominent Bitcoin advocate’s views were mirrored by former Wall Street executive Caitlin Long in a  CCN interview in which she denounced the involvement of Wall Street financialization in the crypto space due to the bad practices it would inevitably bring.


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Newsflash: SEC Stays Wednesday Decision Denying Bitcoin ETF Applications, Commission Will Review

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Thursday stayed three orders denying bitcoin ETF applications that sought to list a total of nine such funds on regulated exchanges including NYSE Arca.

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Those orders, as CCN reported, were issued on Wednesday, further confirming the agency’s hesitancy to make cryptocurrency more accessible to retail investors through conventional financial products.

However, in a potential reversal of fortune, the SEC on Thursday announced that the Commission, led by Chairman Jay Clayton, will review those orders, which had originally been drafted by staff members on behalf of agency leadership.

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As SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce explained on Twitter, the Commission commonly delegates such rulings to staff members but may review their decisions after the fact.

Peirce — who criticized the agency’s recent disapproval of a Winklevoss-backed bitcoin ETF — posted a copy of a letter, sent by the agency and addressed to NYSE, attesting to the fact that the chairman and commissioners will personally review the applications to determine whether SEC staff ruled appropriately.

The letter does not give a timetable for when the Commission will make that determination.


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The SEC Is Weighing a Bitcoin Futures ETF – Here’s What That Means

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will decide on two proposed bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) this week – but what are they weighing exactly?

ProShares, the tenth largest provider of ETFs according to CNBC, has two proposals in the running, both based upon bitcoin futures contracts approved by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in 2017.

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What’s more, this impending decision comes at the heels of a more recent ruling by the SEC to delay (until September, if not longer) their determination on a physical-backed bitcoin ETF put forth by VanEck and SolidX.

The distinction between the two, a physical and futures-backed ETF, is worth unpacking to understand the ProShares proposal –  aside from whether bitcoin ETFs should or shouldn’t be approved in the U.S. – centers on which among the two actually has a better shot at SEC approval.

What’s a bitcoin ETF?

To recap, all ETFs trade like stocks, on stock exchanges, but without the same degree of risk.

Due to their design, they’re often a favored instrument for those who want to diversify their investments, offering exposure that’s closer to what you would see in an index fund.

This is because, when you’re buying a share of an ETF, you don’t actually own the underlying shares of the asset (in this case bitcoin). Instead, you own a piece of the fund and how the fund is structured and where the money goes.

“Part of the money when you buy a fund goes to pay for the company that set up the fund and manages the fund. It’s the fund’s money, and the fund owns these assets and, by definition, the fund,” Eric Ross, chief strategist at Cascend Securities, explained.

With a physical-backed bitcoin ETF, investors can effectively participate in the crypto market without being in direct possession of any coins, thereby avoiding some of the risks associated with handling bitcoin private keys (the pieces of information required to actually transfer bitcoins).

Futures-backed bitcoin ETFs take this level of separation one step further by basing the shares in the fund on bitcoin futures contracts as opposed to actual bitcoins themselves.

A futures contract sets a fixed price and date to trade an asset. As such, depending on an investor’s outlook on how the markets will move over time, he or she can buy contracts at varying prices to reflect that outlook and, if correct, make returns on their investment.

In this way, certain futures-backed bitcoin ETFs can indeed prove profitable for investors even if the bitcoin markets are looking bearish. Additionally, holding futures contracts with set prices and expiration dates hold lower degrees of risk given that the company issuing bitcoin ETFs wouldn’t have to make efforts to safeguard any bitcoin assets from theft or hack.

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‘Physical’ vs futures

As a result then, it doesn’t come as much of a surprise that among the 10 bitcoin-related funds that are concurrently undergoing review by SEC officials in the next two months, only one is a physical-backed bitcoin ETF, suggesting most companies are placing their bets on approval of a futures-backed trading option as opposed to physical.

Daniel Masters, executive chairman for CoinShares, explained to CoinDesk in early August:

“Until such time major institutions put their name to cryptocurrency custody, I don’t believe a physical ETF can exist in the U.S…I think any futures backed ETF in the United States now has a far better chance of being approved.”

Although, from a strictly operational standpoint, Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, points out that it is widely understood “where the investors have a choice of buying the ETF that hold the futures versus the ones that physically holds it…95% of the people go to the physical one, the only time they hold the one that holds futures are if they have to.”

“I take the one that actually holds the bitcoin will be more successful and you don’t have to deal with rolling futures. There could be some costs associated with that people don’t like,” he added.

These costs mentioned by Balchunas go back to how the fund issuing ETFs will make a sustainable profit. By holding bitcoin ETF futures contracts, the fund will often have to maintain a “rolling position,” buying contracts at high early prices and later selling these contracts closer to expiry at comparatively low prices. Otherwise known as the “cost of caring,” Balchunas notes that in Bloomberg’s “traffic lights system” anything that rolls futures is given a red light to denote high risk.

For Balchunas, on top of other potential concerns by critics who attack cryptocurrencies for having no intrinsic value, futures-backed bitcoin ETFs add “another laying of complication and risk that you don’t need when you already have all these other issues.”

Market impact

Still, one thing is for certain: the market impact of a bitcoin ETF – if and when approved by the SEC – will be a significant one.

Masters, whose firm offers exchange-traded notes for crypto assets including bitcoin and ether, explained how ETFs could effectively enable a new class of participants to invest in the technology.

“Our customers are individuals, family offices, hedge funds that acquire our products through regulated marketplaces and often that might be insurance-based or pension-based. [Our notes] appeal to a very traditional set of investors,” he remarked.

And that’s appealing also to the many crypto enthusiasts in the U.S. who want to see cryptocurrencies move beyond the fringes of the finance industry and into the mainstream.

For his part, Balchunas sees the entry of a bitcoin ETF as a potentially market-boosting one, explaining:

“If a coin-based bitcoin ETF comes out, I would see it getting to probably $5 billion within a year and then ultimately would be a pretty big product probably maybe $10 to $15 billion over the next couple years and that would put it in the top 10 percent biggest ETFs.”

However, Masters isn’t exactly bullish that the U.S. will move quickly on approving cryptocurrency-based ETFs, adding that “the ruleset in America is meaningfully more complex. In the U.S. things tend to be a lot more structured from day one.”


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SEC Faces Thursday Deadline for ProShares Bitcoin ETF Decision

Less than a month after delaying a decision on a bitcoin-based exchange-traded fund (ETF), the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is poised to approve or disapprove another pair of proposed ETFs.

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Officials at the U.S. securities regulator are set to make a decision on the ProShares Bitcoin ETF and the ProShares Short Bitcoin ETF by Thursday, August 23. Unlike this month’s earlier decision to push an approval for the Cboe’s VanEck/SolidX bitcoin ETF, this rule change proposal – filed by ProShares in conjunction with NYSE Arca – cannot be delayed any further under the regulator’s rules.

The ProShares ETF proposals – initially submitted to the SEC last December – are underpinned by bitcoin futures contracts, rather than any physical holdings of bitcoin itself. In other words, the ETF’s value will be determined by the bitcoin futures contracts trading on CME or the Cboe Futures Exchange, according to the original filing.

ProShares originally proposed the futures-based ETFs in September 2017, but noted at the time that the futures market was young and “there can be no assurance that an active trading market for bitcoin futures contracts will develop or be maintained,” according to the filing.

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The ProShares Trust previously asked the SEC to withdraw a proposed rule change filed on Dec. 19, 2017 which outlined the ProShares Bitcoin and Short Bitcoin ETFs, as well as the ProShares Bitcoin Futures/Equity Strategy ETF and the ProShares Bitcoin/Blockchain Strategy ETF.

The withdrawal request came after the SEC pushed back against a number of ETF proposals, citing concerns about bitcoin’s volatility at the time. Direxion Shares, VanEck and First Trust Advisors also withdrew a number of similar bitcoin ETF proposals at the time.

However, the SEC later announced it was considering the futures-pinned proposals at the end of January.

To date, the regulator has only denied or delayed bitcoin ETF proposals, with the latest denial coming last month when it rejected a proposal filed by Gemini founders and long-time bitcoin investors Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss.

The proposal had already been rejected in the spring of 2017, but the Bats BZX Exchange, which submitted the proposal, filed an appeal that was later heard by SEC commissioners.


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Will the First Bitcoin ETF Make the Crypto Market Even More Volatile?

The first Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) is expected to be approved by February of 2019. But, some experts have stated that ETFs may increase the volatility of the market.

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How the ETF Will Impact the Market

Over the past few months, analysts have been divided on the effect of the ruling of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regarding Bitcoin ETFs on the crypto market.

Brian Kelly, a contributor to CNBC’s Fast Money and the CEO at BKCM, previously explained that the rise in the price of Bitcoin from the lower end of $7,000 to $8,000 in early August could be attributed to the increasing hype around Bitcoin ETFs.

Last week, as the price of BTC dropped substantially against the US dollar, Kelly emphasized that the SEC’s rejection of the Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF likely had an impact on the market and that investors have overreacted to the news.

Bitcoin Price | Bitfinex

Recently, in a Q&A session, well respected cryptocurrency researcher and security expert Andreas Antonopoulos disclosed his stance on Bitcoin ETFs, firmly stating that he is against the introduction of ETFs in regulated markets.

Antonopoulos said that while ETFs have the ability to open the Bitcoin market to a group of institutional investors and retail traders that have not been able to trade the dominant cryptocurrencies due to issues pertaining to regulation, they also provide a platform for large investors to manipulate the price of BTC.

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He explained:

“Everybody is so excited about ETFs. What we have seen in other markets is that when an ETF becomes available, the price really increases dramatically, as suddenly that commodity becomes available to a lot more investors and these investors pile on. But, the other side of it, is that there are always these claims that the commodities markets are heavily manipulated and opening up these ETFs only increase the ability of institutional investors to manipulate the prices of commodities.”

It is possible, given that the ETF of the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) and VanEck-SolidX may lead to billions of dollars in new capital into the Bitcoin market, that the price of BTC sways by large margins on both the upside and downside during the operating hours of the US stock market, if an ETF is launched.

Unlike futures contracts, in the ETF market, investors do not necessarily have the motivation or the incentive to intentionally bring down the price of Bitcoin by manipulating its price trend. But, for instance, if a group of investors decide to utilize the ETF market to manipulate the price of BTC to record gains in the futures market, the Bitcoin market could become significantly more volatile.

ETF, Futures, and Long-Term Growth

In the long run, as more publicly tradable investment vehicles are introduced by regulated financial institutions and the liquidity of Bitcoin drastically improves, it will become difficult to manipulate the price trend of the crypto market.

However, in a period of instability, high volatility, and fast growth, publicly tradable investment vehicles could provide enough leverage to large investors that are capable of reversing market trends.


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ETF Faces Chicken-And-Egg Problem: CBOE President

Chris Concannon, president and CEO of the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), explained that there are still obstacles that must be overcomed before the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approves the first bitcoin-backed exchange traded fund (ETF).
“As we chip away at their issues to make them less concerned, at some point they’ll be comfortable with an ETF,” Concannon told Bloomberg.
LIONBIT
Speaking about bitcoin futures, Concannon noted that trading in bitcoin futures is still low compared to mature assets such as gold or oil. Insufficient trading volume, in turn, makes the SEC hesitant to approve an ETF, although the introduction of an ETF backed by futures would significantly increase the trading volume in the underlying futures contracts. “It’s a chicken-and-egg problem,” he said.

Back in June, the CBOE filed a proposal for an ETF on behalf of financial firm VanEck. This is the only such ETF that aims to be fully backed by physical bitcoins rather than bitcoin futures contracts. Some experts claim that bitcoin custody is the crucial issue for bitcoin ETF. Meanwhile, nine other ETFs backed by bitcoin futures are also pending decisions by the SEC.

TIP

The fact that the ETF was filed through a veteran financial institution such as the CBOE, and that it will hold real bitcoins in its reserves, has made the entire cryptocurrency community particularly excited about the prospects of this particular ETF. CBOEs boss, however, offered his own perspective on the crypto market by saying:

“I’ve learned that there’s been more articles than volume. It’s a little bit shocking to me the attention this market gets versus its size. The entire crypto market is a fifth of Apple.”


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This Issue is Crucial for Bitcoin ETF

Tuesday’s delay of the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) decision regarding the VanEck bitcoin-based exchange traded fund (ETF) is not the central issue that the market should focus on, although it was a frustrating event for investors, Matthew Newton, market analyst at social trading platform eToro, stressed.

LIONBIT

In an emailed statement to Cryptonews.com, Newton said that “the lingering question mark for the SEC is around bitcoin custody,” adding that “to approve the decision, they’d need to do so in the knowledge that the ETF was backed by physical bitcoin – either stored by the CBOE (Chicago Board Options Exchange) or a third party.”

He further said that the financial institutions now moving into the crypto space will have to decide whether they want to develop their own storage and custody solutions, or if they instead want to work with players in the crypto space that are already offering such services.
“We could even start to see consolidation in the market with heavyweight finance houses acquiring crypto companies. Goldman Sachs has already begun deliberations over custody, so watch this space,” the market analyst said, referring to a recent report from Bloomberg that the veteran investment bank is looking into offering custody services for its clients.

TIP

Also, according to Google Trends, public interest in the issue of bitcoin custody is growing again.
Meanwhile, search interest for the term “bitcoin etf” reached its peak for the year in the last week of July:
In either case, the search term “bitcoin etf” is much more popular than “bitcoin custody”:

In addition to the filing by VanEck, made through CBOE, nine other bitcoin-based ETF applications are currently being reviewed by the SEC.

The SEC is required to make an initial decision on the applications within 45 days after they have been published in the US Federal Register. Given current rules, however, the regulator can push back its decisions several times, which means that we may not have a decision on VanEck’s ETF proposal until February next year.

The next deadline for the SEC to decide on a bitcoin ETF is August 23, when it is set to decide the fate of a proposal from ProShares, a well-established provider of ETFs in the US. ProShares’ proposal includes two ETFs, one that would let investors bet on the bitcoin price going up, and another that would offer short exposure, meaning investors can profit when the bitcoin price goes down. However, rather than holding actual bitcoins, the ProShares ETF would be holding bitcoin futures contracts.

Judging from the comments of eToro’s Matthew Newton and others, the other nine filings may have slim chances of getting an approval, given the fact that the VanEck ETF is the only one backed by physical bitcoins held in custody.

In Newton’s own words, “along with regulatory oversight, this question of custody will determine the next big move in the market.”


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SEC Postpones ETF Decision, Bitcoin Slides

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has postponed its decision regarding a highly anticipated application for a bitcoin-based exchange traded fund (ETF) filed by investment firm VanEck through the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE).

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The SEC wrote in its statement that they have so far received more than 1,300 comments from the public on the proposed rule change that would be necessary in order to list the ETF on an exchange. Tuesday’s notice from the SEC would give the regulator until September 30 to decide on whether it will approve or disapprove the proposed rule change.

Although many market commentators and investors had already expressed that they expected the decision to be pushed back several times, the market reacted by sending the bitcoin price further down.

Bitcoin overnight broke through a technical support found at the USD 6,700 level and is currently (UTC 4:40 AM) trading at around USD 6,500.

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Some people, including economist and early bitcoin investor Tuur Demeester, urges caution and warns the market that a bitcoin ETF may not be approved in the US until next year.
Also, as reported, Jake Chervinsky, a US-based lawyer at Kobre & Kim, a law firm, suggested that due to rulemaking procedures the SEC can, and probably, will delay its decision on the VanEck bitcoin ETF until February 21, 2019.

Meanwhile, Demeester wrote in an opinion piece that “any anticipation of approval by September will likely be met with disappointment,” while still pointing out that an “ETF approval, even if it’s delayed, would be a huge deal because it makes the asset extremely accessible for the retail investor.”


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Only a Matter of Time Before SEC Approves Bitcoin ETF: Tech VC

The market is rapidly approaching the point of acceptance for a bitcoin ETF, and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will eventually approve an ETF in the near future. This is the opinion of Fatfish Internet Group CEO, Kin-Wai Lau, speaking to CNBC last week.

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According to Lau, what the market is experiencing is a “second wave rally” for bitcoin and cryptourrencies, a strong wave of demand driven by institutional investment entry and adoption. This he said, is generally a positive sign for early adopters and people with an interest in the sector. Going further, he also stated that the likelihood of the SEC approving a crypto market ETF is more a function of what organisation will successfully convince the SEC that it has the necessary tools to float an ETF.

He said:

“I think it’s a matter of time before we see the SEC approve an ETF. It’s just a matter of which organisation will be able to come out with comprehensive tools in terms of monitoring, surveillance, and ability to liquidity. there is a range of tools that need to be equipped, but it’s also readiness of the market. We’re not far away, maybe a couple of months away from the market accepting an ETF product. I think that’s what the SEC will be looking at.”

In Lau’s opinion, boosted bitcoin demand is being driven primarily by organic demand from everyday people around the world – a pattern that he says will not change in the run-up to the end of the year.

Responding to a question about what markers investors should be on the lookout for in terms of predicting bitcoin price movements, Lau stated that adoption, and not ETFs or other ‘abstract’ market instruments is what will substantially impact the asset price.

In his words:

“Adoption is what is driving the demand on ground. It’s being used widely in many countries and a lot of jurisdictions are starting to regulate it and approach it with a cautious but optimistic approach. That’s generally a couple of factors that will affect regulatory interest. It is geared up for a rally toward year end.”

CCN earlier reported that Crescent Crypto CEO Ali Hassan estimated the time frame for SEC approval for a bitcoin ETF at just about a year and a half from now.

This comes just a week after investment firm VanEck responded to the SEC’s concerns over crypto ETFs in a letter published on the agency’s website.



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