Why This Might Just Be the Bottom for Bitcoin (BTC)

If you could have suggested to any crypto trader and enthusiast earlier this year that Bitcoin (BTC) would drop to current levels of $3,700 he or she might as well declared you insane. But the reality remains that we are where we are due to a few factors that will be stated below.

Current Values Had been Predicted Loosely 

Heading into Thanksgiving, there was the bullish side of the argument that had postulated that the discounted values of all cryptocurrencies will lead to a bounce and have BTC at levels above $4,700. This theory had been based on the fact that the Hash Wars were over. There was also another camp that was calling for $3,000.

Earlier Predictions of the Bear Market

Veteran Bitcoin and digital analyst Willy Woo, uses the NVT signal/ratio to analyze the future of BTC. The NVT ratio that was co-created by Dmitry Kalichki and Woo, is simply the Network Valuation divided by the Transaction Value flowing through the blockchain and then smoothed using a moving average.

In an October 26th tweet, Willy Woo had used this ratio to conclude that we were in the middle of a bear market. This in turn meant that we had a few months of Bitcoin falling before declaring a bottom. The exact date of the bottom was not known but the calls were for some time between April and May 2019.

Bitcoin Cash Hash Wars Has Accelerated The Process of Reaching a Bottom

Unbeknownst to many analysts, was the storm that was the Bitcoin Cash Hash Wars that saw BTC fall from $6,300 levels only two weeks ago to current $3,700 values. This event has indeed accelerated the process of reaching the possible end of the bear market that had been predicted for mid-2019.

No Trading During the Thanksgiving Weekend

This weekend also played a part to play in the declining value of BTC. Thanksgiving is used as a marker to kick-start spending during the Holiday Season. After Thanksgiving, individuals take out their money to buy discounted items on Black Friday and Cyber Monday. There is also the pending Christmas period and New Years where spending and travelling is the norm.

It is therefore not surprising that the trade volume this weekend was low. Traders might have simply cashed out and thus contributing to the decline of BTC.

What Next?

With many crypto traders either capitulating or continuing to hold, the next few weeks of the year will be crucial in determining the next course of action in the crypto markets.

To note is that there are the CME Bitcoin Futures that expire this Friday, the 30th of November. What is normally the case when these contracts expire, is that the value of BTC drops a few percentage points. However, one can argue that BTC has fallen too hard for the expiring futures contracts to make a bigger dent on its value.

In conclusion, the bear market had been predicted to last into 2019 but the emergence of the unexpected Hash Wars probably accelerated the process of reaching a bottom for BTC. The current levels had been predicted loosely but for mid next year. The next few weeks will be crucial in determining if this is indeed a bottom and before Bakkt launches on the 24th of January. Therefore, being cautious in the crypto markets moving forward might not be a bad idea.

Author: John P. Njui
Image Credit

Bitcoin [BTC] flash drops within 30 minutes to settle below $6900: Silk Road to blame?

The cryptocurrency market started off bullish this month but it seems like the “good” days (of the bearish nature) were here to stay for a longer time. Bitcoin [BTC] flash dropped within 30 minutes in the market and reached below $6900 on several exchanges. Bitcoin lost almost $500 in under five minutes.

According to CoinMarketCap, at the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading $6985 with a market cap of $122.18 billion.

Bitcoin price drop below $7000 | Source: Trading View

The market speculates that the reason for this could be the recent movements of the Bitcoin wallet which is reportedly connected to Silk Road accounts. Recently, a Reddit user spotted that almost $1 billion BTC was on the move. These coins were transferred to Bitfinex, Binance and BitMEX in small portions.

Over the past 10 days, the wallet holder had transferred over 11,114 Bitcoin to Bitfinex, one of the leading exchange platform in the world and 4,421 Bitcoin was transferred to Binance, the leading exchange in terms of trade volume. In addition, over 210 Bitcoin was sent to BitMEX, the top Mercantile exchange platform.

In addition, earlier today, Bitcoin [BTC] was trading at its highest at $24000 in one of the cryptocurrency exchange platform in Iran as the government legalized cryptocurrency mining in the country.

Bitcoin was not the only one to bear the brunt of this flash crash. Altcoins have started to bleed as well. Ethereum [ETH] has dropped by more than 10% in just one hour and is trading at $258.86. XRP and Bitcoin Cash, the other leading cryptocurrencies in the market has fallen by more than 9%.

Moreover, Bitcoin Shorts has spiked up in the market and the speculation of Bitcoin price drop has been doing its rounds in the market since the beginning of this month. The data presented on CoinMarketCap shows that at present, the biggest trading volume for Bitcoin is on BitMEX, $3.3 billion.

Robby16, a Reddit user said:

“Shorts mate. Whale vs whale. Longs getting liquidated and rekt. Over 10om tether printed and sent to bitfinex to short.”

Uelga, another Redditor said:

“Crypto flash sale started again or what?”

Crypt0jakd, a Reddit user said:

“Here’s the bull market this delusional sub thought was imminent. Just a bunch of children screaming lambo”

Adam Furbey, a shorts trader from Christchurch spoke to AMBCrypto about this drop and says,

“Is this manipulation again? Like who settles for Bitcoin at $6890? This looks like a deliberate dump. This shit will keep everyone off crypto. Shorts is shit”

His friend, Remy, however, had a different opinion,

“This is when you should get into crypto, people like Adam run off from crypto, they are what I call weak hands. It’s good that they get out. We will have stronger hands.”

Author: Priya 
Image Credit