Why This Might Just Be the Bottom for Bitcoin (BTC)

If you could have suggested to any crypto trader and enthusiast earlier this year that Bitcoin (BTC) would drop to current levels of $3,700 he or she might as well declared you insane. But the reality remains that we are where we are due to a few factors that will be stated below.

Current Values Had been Predicted Loosely 

Heading into Thanksgiving, there was the bullish side of the argument that had postulated that the discounted values of all cryptocurrencies will lead to a bounce and have BTC at levels above $4,700. This theory had been based on the fact that the Hash Wars were over. There was also another camp that was calling for $3,000.

Earlier Predictions of the Bear Market

Veteran Bitcoin and digital analyst Willy Woo, uses the NVT signal/ratio to analyze the future of BTC. The NVT ratio that was co-created by Dmitry Kalichki and Woo, is simply the Network Valuation divided by the Transaction Value flowing through the blockchain and then smoothed using a moving average.

In an October 26th tweet, Willy Woo had used this ratio to conclude that we were in the middle of a bear market. This in turn meant that we had a few months of Bitcoin falling before declaring a bottom. The exact date of the bottom was not known but the calls were for some time between April and May 2019.

Bitcoin Cash Hash Wars Has Accelerated The Process of Reaching a Bottom

Unbeknownst to many analysts, was the storm that was the Bitcoin Cash Hash Wars that saw BTC fall from $6,300 levels only two weeks ago to current $3,700 values. This event has indeed accelerated the process of reaching the possible end of the bear market that had been predicted for mid-2019.

No Trading During the Thanksgiving Weekend

This weekend also played a part to play in the declining value of BTC. Thanksgiving is used as a marker to kick-start spending during the Holiday Season. After Thanksgiving, individuals take out their money to buy discounted items on Black Friday and Cyber Monday. There is also the pending Christmas period and New Years where spending and travelling is the norm.

It is therefore not surprising that the trade volume this weekend was low. Traders might have simply cashed out and thus contributing to the decline of BTC.

What Next?

With many crypto traders either capitulating or continuing to hold, the next few weeks of the year will be crucial in determining the next course of action in the crypto markets.

To note is that there are the CME Bitcoin Futures that expire this Friday, the 30th of November. What is normally the case when these contracts expire, is that the value of BTC drops a few percentage points. However, one can argue that BTC has fallen too hard for the expiring futures contracts to make a bigger dent on its value.

In conclusion, the bear market had been predicted to last into 2019 but the emergence of the unexpected Hash Wars probably accelerated the process of reaching a bottom for BTC. The current levels had been predicted loosely but for mid next year. The next few weeks will be crucial in determining if this is indeed a bottom and before Bakkt launches on the 24th of January. Therefore, being cautious in the crypto markets moving forward might not be a bad idea.


Source
Author: John P. Njui
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Why 100k Could Be The Limit For Bitcoin?

Earlier this week an article was published which discussed how Bitcoins valuation could be set to 100k at most. As we know, the upper limit for BTC is currently set at $20k, an all time high that has not yet been matched since the cryptocurrency boom of late 2017. Now, many believe that whilst $100k is a way off, it still remains as a final upper limit for the value of Bitcoin. This number comes from the strong relationship between the previous prices of Bitcoin in the past and the network activity. Essentially, this means that each coin will be worth more if the Bitcoin network is busy and on its feet more.

Despite this, technical restrictions mean that Bitcoin’s growth will be slowed down in the short term.

The limit for Bitcoin?

The article talks about how the recently hit thresholds of the soft limit when prices surged up to the $20,000 mark. Network activity was on a high during this time and this caused fees to increase too. By 22nd December, the average price of a fee was $62.50.

This was seen as a soft limit but as more utilisation could be had, there was less practicality and more cost to the idea.

The soft and hard limit is sure to change with the big change of growth that the crypto space sector has been used to. Nevertheless, with its core upgrades and BIP implementations, Bitcoin is always improving and also making significant leaps through continual progress in the Lightning Network, Schnorr Signatures and SegWit.

BTC Manager commented on the matter saying:

“An important distinction needs to be made, however: just because the theoretical cap of price is at $100,000 doesn’t mean Bitcoin will see that price anytime soon. The findings only state that when the next bubble occurs, the price should be no higher than $100,000.”

Could SegWit Cause More BTC?

Despite SegWit not being a new development, Bitcoins latest bull run had SegWit already implemented on the main net. But still, the adoption changed.

Since it was created, adoption has shown a healthy trend upward, recently spiking over 50%. In December last year adoption rates were just over 12% which meant that Bitcoin transaction capacity has surged by 50%.

Bitcoin transactional capacity is now going up by over 200%, this is due to the growing support for SegWit.


Source
Author: Robert Johnson
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BITCOIN VALUE INDICATOR SAYS PRICE ‘STILL OVERBOUGHT’ BUT BOTTOM ‘NEAR’

The Bitcoin price bottom is “near,” but the largest cryptocurrency still shows signs of being “overbought,” new research released October 1 claims.


UNDERSTANDING ‘WHAT’S GOING ON’

In the latest installment of his ‘Bitcoin Value Indicator,’ tech commentator Hans Hauge brought together multiple factors to create an overview of the Bitcoin price which he says allows investors to “understand what’s going on.”

Hauge notes that increasingly strong technical fundamentals are contrasting with continuing price deflation, suggesting a price bottom will soon appear.

The number of unique addresses using the network, hash rate, and total transaction numbers are all up on previous readings — while prices remain down — he summarizes.

“Bitcoin is probably still overpriced, but the fundamentals are steadily improving while the average price of Bitcoin has continued to fall,” he wrote concluding the findings.

“Make sure you’re ready to make your move when the time is right.”

TOO SOON TO CALL?

Hauge’s technical reasoning paints a decidedly more conservative picture than many sources from within the cryptocurrency industry.

September, for example, saw investor Mike Novogratz publicly call a “bottom” for BTC/USD, a prediction which it has yet to test based on prices at the time.

Others are eagerly awaiting an end-of-year rush for Bitcoin, claiming prices could still expand considerably in Q4. Fundstrat analyst Tom Lee, bullish as ever despite sideways action continuing for months, told the media late August that a return $20,000 was still possible by year-end.

Hauge meanwhile did not touch on the current debate surrounding institutional investors entering Bitcoin markets en masse to dramatically increase activity precisely due to the sideways action of the past six months.

As Bitcoinist also reports today, commentaries remain mixed on the concept, while financial sources in the US are already telling mainstream media that institutional money is entering through less conspicuous routes.

“The Wild West days of crypto are really turning the corner,” Chicago-based investment lead Bobby Cho forecast to Bloomberg.


Source
Author: Wilma Woo
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