Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC/USD Small Reversal Formation

Bitcoin might be ready for an uptrend as it formed a double bottom reversal pattern on its 1-hour chart. This is often seen as a classic uptrend signal, provided that price can break past the neckline around the $6,600 mark.

If so, Bitcoin could climb by around $600 or the same height as the chart pattern. The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA to suggest that the path of least resistance is to the upside or that the rally could gain more traction. However, the gap between the two moving averages has narrowed enough to suggest that a downward crossover is imminent. In that case, bearish pressure might still return and lead to another test of the bottoms.

RSI looks prime to head south so Bitcoin price could follow suit as sellers take over while buyers take a break. Stochastic has also just made it out of the overbought region to signal a return in selling pressure. A move below the bottoms could confirm that the longer-term slide is resuming.

A pickup in risk-taking has been observed in the broader financial markets on account of softer-than-expected tariffs from both the US and China. Besides, both these announcements have been hinted at in the past weeks so the bullish moves may also indicate profit-taking. Other altcoins have reported some progress, though, so it’s possible that the positive sentiment is also helping keep bitcoin price afloat.

Looking ahead, it seems that Bitcoin bulls are taking things slow while remaining wary of the SEC ruling on bitcoin ETF applications. It looks like markets are pricing in lower odds of an approval, although there still seem to be signs of hope. An approval is being touted as a potential catalyst that could spur the much-anticipated rebound in bitcoin for the year while rejection could reflect yet another setback.

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Author: Sara Jenn
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Bitcoin will reach $8500 by end of year, says Trefis

Trefis Team, a firm offering software that predicts market movements, recently offered their opinion on the price of Bitcoin [BTC]. While the cryptocurrency market has been seeing bullish news lately, the price continues to exhibit sluggish movement.

Bitcoin, the top cryptocurrency, is currently trading at the $6500 mark after a series of sharp drops last week. Goldman Sachs stated that they would delay the plans of its cryptocurrency trading desk, leading to a widespread selloff due to FUD.

However, Trefis claims to have predicted the price of Bitcoin by the end of 2018, putting it around $8500 around the timeframe. Their predictions are based on the overall transaction volume for Bitcoin and the total number of users on the blockchain. Moreover, their predictions, when backtested, are reportedly 94% accurate as stated on their website.
They utilize the principles of supply and demand to fundamentally determine the price of Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency, with its capped supply and deflationary system of bringing new coins into existence, has a supply system that would help the case of its price rising. The two variables that Trefis has considered to calculate the demand is the number of active users and the amount they transact.

According to these calculations, they expect the price of Bitcoin to undergo a 30% increase over the year, quoting reasons such as the general sentiment dictated by the news. This, according to them, was the reason for the price to go up to $20,000 late last year. They also stated that the price has moved in tandem with news, with dips being observed when exchanges were hacked and when the United States Securities and Exchanges Commission [SEC] denied applications for an exchange-traded fund [ETF].

According to Trefis, the creation and general lobbying of the Blockchain Association will also create a more positive view for regulators. They stated that the approval of the ETF by the SEC is one of the biggest catalysts for the growth of Bitcoin. It represents a “huge potential upside” to the price of Bitcoin.

Iarius Germund, a market analyst, stated:
“While the market still responds sluggishly to a lot of the news coming out right now, the base is gradually being built. At the same time last year, the cryptocurrency market did not have many of the things it required for mainstream adoption as an asset class. We have made considerable progress on that end, but the price is only likely to move when actual changes occur in the market with respect to adoption.”


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Author:  Anirudh VK
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Bitcoin and Altcoins Trade in Tight Range, Prepare for Next Move

  • Bitcoin price is consolidating in a tight range below the USD 6,500 – USD 6,600 resistance.
  • Ethereum and ripple are trading in a positive zone, but both are lacking momentum.
  • VERI, RDD, NAS and ONT gained more than 15% today.LIONBIT
    This past week, there was a decent recovery in bitcoin and altcoins. BTC/USD stayed above the USD 6,250 support and it attempted an upside break above USD 6,500 – USD 6,600 on a few occasions. However, there was a no convincing break and the price started trading in a range above the USD 6,250 support. Similarly, ethereum recovered above USD 300 before sellers appeared near USD 325. Ripple spiked above the USD 0.350 resistance and bitcoin cash settled above USD 540. At the outset, bitcoin and all major altcoins are trading in tight ranges and seems to be preparing for the next move.

    Bitcoin
    Bitcoin price settled above the USD 6,250 pivot level, but it struggled to clear a strong resistance zone near USD 6,500 – USD 6,600. There were 3-4 attempts to surpass the stated resistance, but BTC/USD buyers failed to gain momentum.

    As a result, the price started trading in a range with support at USD 6,250 and resistance at USD 6,600. The price is likely to make the next move either above USD 6,600 or below USD 6,250. To the topside, above USD 6,600, the price could test the USD 7,000 and USD 7,150 resistances. On the flip side, a break and close below USD 6,250 may perhaps put buyers under a lot of pressure with the next supports at USD 6,000 and USD 5,850.

    TIP

    Ethereum
    Ethereum breached the USD 300 resistance this past week, but it failed to stay above it. ETH/USD is currently trading in a tiny range with support at USD 282 and resistance near USD 305.

    Similar to bitcoin, ethereum will make the next move either above USD 305 or below USD 282. An upside break above USD 305 could push the price towards USD 325 and USD 340. Conversely, a break below USD 282 will most likely take ETH to USD 250.

    Bitcoin cash and ripple
    Bitcoin cash price gained traction this past week and settled above USD 500 and USD 540. However, BCH/USD is facing a lot of hurdles near the USD 580 and USD 600 levels. Only a close above USD 600 could open the doors for more gains.

    Ripple price performed well and broke the USD 0.350 resistance. XRP/USD is trading above the USD 0.320 (UTC 08:20 AM) support is looks set for more gains in the coming days.

    Other altcoins market today
    Today, many small cap altcoins registered more than 10% gains, including VERI, RDD, NAS, ontology, vechain, nano, RHOC, tezos, and XZC.

    Overall, bitcoin price is preparing for the next major break this week, which could be either above USD 6,600 or below USD 6,250. If BTC/USD settles above USD 6,600, there may possibly more upsides in BTC and altcoins in the near term.



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    Author: Aayush Jindal
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Bitcoin’s Rollercoaster!

The rollercoaster of cryptocurrency pricing is on the downward slope again. Bitcoin has fallen by a quarter in the past month, with other large currencies such as Ethereum and Ripple down more than 40%. So where does this latest bout of losses leave cryptocurrencies?
LIONBIT
Sceptics point to the multitude of regulatory issues and avenues for fraud and outright theft. Advocates continue to insist that these are the “future of finance”.
One of the reasons for the latest sell-off is that investors are selling their crypto to pay off the capital gains tax they are required to pay on their gains. It has been estimated that USD 25 billion is owed in the US alone.

But there is a more fundamental issue at play of investors rushing to convert their profits from initial coin offerings (or ICOs) into fiat currency like dollars. This is where a new crypto token is created in exchange for existing cryptocurrencies like bitcoin.
The lack of regulation to protect the profits made from ICOs reflects the wider issue facing the future of crypto. If cryptocurrencies are to become a more mainstream asset, they will require regulation – but this will be unpopular with much of its existing fan base which is inherently libertarian.

The transfer of crypto gains from an ICO to fiat currency can generate quite the scrummage as cryptocurrency investors attempt to exit the market with the largest amount of value possible. In early 2018, it was reported that almost 46% of 2017 ICOs had already failed.

The pressure to exit in a timely manner has been exacerbated by the substantial number of ICO scams that have taken place. Crypto analysis site Diar estimates that, since 2017, nearly USD 100m had been lost to ICO exit scams where organisers have little or no intention of developing a financial product that will perform to the standard that is advertised to investors.

TIP

The cryptocurrency world is largely unregulated and so ripe territory for scammers to operate. Fraud in cryptocurrency markets has to date taken multiple forms. As well as ICO issues, there has been fraud at exchange level, the most famous example of which was the collapse of the Mt. Gox exchange which once handled 80% of global bitcoin trading.
The number of issues and vast sums of money involved has resulted in the US Securities and Exchange Commission casting its supervisory gaze on the crypto world.

A growing body of academic research has raised substantial questions over the true underlying integrity of cryptocurrency markets. It highlights the various areas where regulation is needed if bitcoin and others are to have a viable future.

For example, economist Neil Gandal and colleagues found that trading volumes on all Bitcoin exchanges increased substantially on days where they found suspicious trading activity. The authors demonstrated that this suspicious activity by one single actor or agent was most likely a big factor behind the sharp increase in the price of Bitcoin from US$150 to US$1,000 in late 2013.

Declines in liquidity have also been found to contribute to the risk of a crash in Bitcoin. This is problematic given that, even under normal trading conditions, Bitcoin is found to be more volatile, less liquid and costlier to transact than other assets.

Finance researchers John Griffin and Amin Shams analysed blockchain data and found that tether, a cryptocurrency pegged to the US dollar, deeply influenced other cryptocurrencies during the sharp price appreciations of 2017 and 2018. They concluded that tether transactions were responsible for up to 50% of the increase of Bitcoin and 64% of the increase in value of other top cryptocurrencies.

Our own research has suggested that cryptocurrencies are only very lightly linked to other financial or economic assets, and that the majority are unaffected by the main market announcements. This all goes to show that cryptocurrencies can be manipulated and do not reflect normal market activity.

The underlying economic value of cryptos has also been evaluated, with some suggesting that a crypto’s value is determined solely by the willingness of its holders to hoard. Others have found that crypto values are mainly a function of their network depth and not their intrinsic usefulness – again leaving it open to manipulation. Still others point to the economic limits to bitcoin arising from its mining cost.

Strangely, we now live in a world where joke cryptocurrencies such as the Useless Ethereum Token and Fuzzballs have tangible value, despite being miniscule in comparison to Bitcoin or Ethereum. The former advertises itself with the statement: “Seriously, don’t buy these tokens”, the latter contains a warning on its website stating: “There seems to be a problem with the Fuzzballs chain/source” and “mine Fuzzballs at your own risk.”
Would a neutral, independent observer look at these facts and buy these tokens? What would an observer that survived the dot-com crash think?

To be merited as a somewhat viable and trustworthy financial market product, cryptocurrencies must in some way adhere to a common standard of international regulation. Until this occurs, we will continue to observe situations involving substantial theft from international exchanges, continued disquiet as fraudulent ICOs are uncovered with investor funds channelled around the world, and most interestingly, a market that has become so sensitive to minute details that even the smallest hint of strife can generate substantial price volatility.

The challenge for proponents of cryptocurrencies is how to continue to promote their decentralised, anonymous, libertarian nature as their issuance and trading become more and more regulated.


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Author: Brian Lucey and Shaen Corbet
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“The crypto industry needs to step their game up” – says U.S Congressman

Rep. Emanuel Cleaver, a Congressman representing Missouri’s fifth District recently said that “the crypto industry need to step their game up.” The statement was made on his Twitter handle proceeding the news that Bitcoin [BTC] was used to pay for servers to tamper the U.S Presidential elections of 2016.



Emanuel Cleaver says:
“I’ve been warning of the potential dangers of Bitcoin being used by nefarious actors. Now, we know Russia used cryptocurrency to fund their meddling campaign in 2016. The crypto industry needs to step their game up.”

The statement was followed by the announcement that 12 Russians intelligent officers [GRU] were indicted for conspiring to interfere in the 2016 Presidential elections.
Robert Rosentian, the Deputy US Attorney General said that 11 others felons were charged for conspiring to hack the computers to steal documents and release them with the purpose of interfering with the elections. The GRU used a scheme known as the spear phishing which involved sending misleading email messages and trick the users to disclose their passwords and security information.

The defendants hacked computer networks to install malicious softwares which enabled them to spy on users, take screenshots and remove data from devices. They had access to the email accounts of volunteers and employees of the US Presidential campaign, including the campaign chairman. Furthermore, the congressional campaign committee and a national political committee’s computers networks were also hacked.

The defendants transferred the stolen documents to another organization. However, it remains unidentified by name in the indictment. The organization to which it was transferred was used as a pass through to release the documents in an attempt to enhance the impact on the election.

The defendants used a network of computers around the world in order to conceal their connections to Russia and the payment for the same was done through cryptocurrencies. Later, Robert Rosentian said that the 11 defendants were charged with money laundering for transferring cryptocurrencies through a web of transactions in order to purchase computer servers, registered domains and make other payments to further their hacking activities.

The Congressman faced huge backlash on social media for making this statement. Majority of the people of the crypto-space, including influencers, have urged that the statement is baseless and that he has no knowledge on Bitcoin.

Phil, a Bitcoin enthusiast says:
“You better educate yourself… Bitcoin is the most transparent and auditable ledger in the world of money, every transaction is traceable. The USD on the other hand is completely anonymous and used by nefarious actors worldwide”

Crypto Randy Marsh, a Twitterati says:
“This guy is a total noob and epitomizes the entire government’s ineptness. Everything leaves a trace on the blockchain, unlike that printed currency everyone uses to buy drugs and guns. Oh, and let’s not forget a large % of terrorist weapons are US military.”
Rick Schlesinger, the co-founder of EOS New York says:
“Do you plan to warn of the dangers of the US Dollar in its involvement in the cartel’s drug trade, human trafficking, and backroom political deals? What sort of thinking went into your critique of Bitcoin when crimes are committed daily with the use of the greenback?”
He further adds:
“To add on, you should be thanking cryptocurrency and Bitcoin for being able to identify these crimes. Bitcoin is at least traceable by wallet accounts whereas cash is untraceable. I’m surprised you’re not understanding this”


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Author: Priya
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Bitcoin Price Shows Green Again After $6K Defense

Bitcoin’s (BTC) sharp recovery from two-week lows hit yesterday has raised the odds of a stronger rally towards $6,400, technical studies indicate.
As of writing, the leading cryptocurrency is changing hands at $6,245 on Bitfinex.
BTC was expected to drop below $6,000 in the last 24 hours as the bears were on the offensive following an inverted flag breakdown.



However, the intraday oversold conditions likely put a floor under bitcoin prices at the two-week low of $6,080, helping it chart a solid rebound to $6,283 (today’s high).

While it is too early to call a bullish reversal, the change of fortune has saved the day for the BTC bulls. Moreover, the probability of BTC’s price charting a picture-perfect inverse head-and-shoulders bullish reversal pattern would have dropped sharply had BTC found acceptance below $6,000.

Hourly Chart

The above chart shows BTC created a falling wedge pattern over the last four days, as represented by lower highs and lower lows. Prices crossed the wedge resistance yesterday with strength (backed by a pick-up in volume), signaling the pullback from Monday’s high of $6,820 has ended.

The falling wedge breakout also validated the bear-to-bull trend change indicated by the bullish price-relative strength index divergence (higher low on the RSI).

So, BTC will likely find acceptance above the immediate resistance $6,270 (50-hour moving average) and rise towards the descending 100-hour MA, currently located at $6,404.
While the hourly chart has adopted a bullish bias, the daily chart is still biased to the bears, so the bulls are cautioned against being too ambitious.

Daily chart

The 5-day and 10-day MA are trending south, implying a bearish bias, while the relative strength index (RSI) is holding below 50.00, also indicating the bears are in control.

View
BTC could attack the $6,400 mark, but further gains are ruled out for now as the descending (bearish) 5-day MA and 10-day MA are located at $6,366 and $6,500, respectively.

That said, if BTC manages to close (as per UTC) today above 10-day MA, then the doors would open for a re-test of the Monday’s high of $6,820.

Bearish scenario: A failure to produce a significant move higher despite the bullish price RSI divergence and the falling wedge breakout would shift risk in favor of a drop to a recent low of $5,755. The downside move will likely gather pace if BTC fails to hold above $6,080 (previous day’s high) over the weekend.



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Author: Omkar Godbole
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Bitcoin Awaits Price Breakout As Trading Range Tightens

The price of bitcoin (BTC) is stuck in a $400 range defined by key technical levels, and the direction of the breakout will likely set the tone for the next move in the cryptocurrency.
The trading range’s lower end is $6,341, a double bottom neckline (former resistance-turned-support), which was scaled on June 30. Meanwhile, $6,754 (a 23.6 percent Fibonacci retracement of the sell-off from $9,990 to $5,755), which put brakes on BTC’s rally earlier this week, marks the upper end of the trading range.



A convincing move above $6,754 would signal a resumption of the rally from $5,755 (June 24 low) and would open the doors to $7,000, as indicated by the double bottom breakout and bull flag breakout earlier this week.

On the other hand, the bullish case would weaken significantly if prices find acceptance below $6,341.

That said, the short duration charts indicate the odds are stacked in favor of a downside break of the trading range. At press time, BTC is changing hands at $6,520 on Bitfinex – down 1 percent on a 24-hour basis.

1-hour chart
The bears may feel emboldened by BTC’s transition from rising channel (bullish setup) to falling channel (bearish setup), as seen in the chart above.
Further, Bollinger Bands (standard deviation of +2,-2 on 20-hour moving average) are trending south, indicating a bearish setup.

BTC is also trading below 50-hour and 100-hour moving average (MA), indicating the path of least resistance is to the downside. More importantly, 50-hour MA risks falling below 100-hour MA in the next few hours (bearish crossover).

4-hour chart

The downside break of the rising channel yesterday added credence to the bearish relative strength index (RSI) divergence and strengthened the bear case.
The chart also shows Bollinger Bands that have adopted bearish bias (beginning to fall).

View
BTC risks falling below $6,341 (double bottom neckline – former resistance-turned-support, the lower end of the trading range) as indicated by the bearish setup on the hourly and 4-hour chart.

Acceptance below $6,341 would abort the bullish view put forward by the double bottom breakout, bull flag breakout and bullish falling channel breakout and would shift risk in favor of a drop below $6,000.

On the higher side, an aggressive move above the significant obstacle of $6,754 (23.6 percent Fibonacci resistance) would bolster the already bullish technical setup on the daily chart and open doors to $7,000.



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Bitcoin Price Watch: Can BTC/USD Hold $6,400?

Key Points
* Bitcoin price started a downside correction after trading as high as $6,680 against the US Dollar.
* There is a new contracting triangle forming with support near $6,410 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).



* The pair must stay above the $6,400-10 support area to avoid further downsides in the near term.
* Bitcoin price is currently correcting lower against the US Dollar. BTC/USD should stay above the $6,400 support to resume its upward move towards $6,800.

Bitcoin Price Analysis
Yesterday, bitcoin price traded towards the $6,700 level against the US Dollar. The BTC/USD pair traded as high as $6,680 before sellers took a stand. As a result, a downside correction was initiated and the price declined below the $6,600 level. During the decline, the price broke the $6,550 and $6,500 support levels. Moreover, it cleared the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the $6,260 swing low to $6,680 high.

However, the downside move was protected by the $6,400 support, which was a resistance earlier. More importantly, the 100 hourly simple moving (currently at $6,440) also acted as a support. The price tested the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the $6,260 swing low to $6,680 high. At the moment, the price is consolidating losses above the $6,400 support. It seems like there is a new contracting triangle forming with support near $6,410 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. A bearish break below the $6,400 support and the 100 hourly SMA could be a bearish sign in the short term.
Looking at the chart, the price is likely to hold the $6,400 support. However, it has to break the triangle resistance at $6,600 to gain traction. If bitcoin buyers fail to gain momentum, there is a risk of a break below $6,400.

Looking at the technical indicators:
Hourly MACD – The MACD for BTC/USD is slowly moving in the bearish zone.
Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI is now well below the 40 level.
Major Support Level – $6,400
Major Resistance Level – $6,600



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Author: Aayush Jindal
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Crypto Graveyard May Not Have Much Space Left

Crypto graveyards are filling up with coins that are almost destined to fail from the get-go. These include interesting names such as CryptoMeth, Droplex and Roulettecoin. Dead Coins lists around 800 tokens that are bereft of life, while Coinopsy estimates that more than 1,000 have kicked the bucket.

Aaron Brown, a business author and investor who writes for Bloomberg Prophets, said in an email to Bloomberg, “I accept figures I have seen that 80% of initial coin offerings (ICOs) were frauds, and 10% lacked substance and failed shortly after raising money. Most of the remaining 10% will probably fail as well.”



A grim view, to be sure, but not unfitting to this topic. According to an analysis from ICO advisory firm Satis Group, only 3.8% of ICOs raising from USD 50 million to USD 100 million were successful, while only 1.6% were promising. Most of them had an inexperienced team or no product at all, just a whitepaper promising more than they could ever deliver.

Arieh Levi, an analyst at CB Insights, told Bloomberg he thinks there is just no “killer app” available yet.
“It just seems like there’s been a lot of projects tried, but there aren’t really many users of blockchain protocols beyond speculators and traders.” Richler Vanierwitz of Coinopsy adds, “We will see a lot more abandoned ICO that never make it to an exchange […] “ICO investment will become very unprofitable.”

When considering what caused the death of an altcoin, we need to consider a few factors. That being price, market capitalization, community support, and development. It’s safe to call the cryptocurrency dead when all four of these factors point to such a conclusion.
For an example of what is essentially a dead coin, let’s look at BBQ coin. Launched sometime around 2013, BBQ coin was once listed on coinmarketcap.com and had a price of USD 0.29 each. It had a total market cap of around USD 8 million at the end of 2013.


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The currency had its own web page, sub-Reddit, and development team. Fast forward to today and almost no trace of the coin can be found. It is no longer listed on coinmarketcap, it’s sub-Reddit has seen no new posts in three years and its homepage has been taken over. By these definitions, we can consider this currency to be effectively dead. What was it created for originally? According to its archived homepage, “just for fun”.

Still, some of the dead coins may be reincarnated: CoinJanitor has partnered with Dead Coins to recycle failed coins with market caps of under USD 50,000. They plans to take over dead projects and burn the dead coins. To do so, CoinJanitor has created its own token. Will it end up in the very same graveyard?

In either case, over 537 ICOs conducted in the first five months of this year raised a combined total of USD 13.7 billion – more than the sum of all ICOs before this year, starting 2013, according to a second global ICO report, done by the Crypto Valley Association (CVA) and Strategy&, the strategy and consulting division of CVA member PwC, a consulting firm.


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Author: Sead Fadilpasic
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Bitcoin Dominance Rate Rising: At the 2 Month Maximum

Seeing any cryptocurrency establish any kind of positive trend comes like a lifeline in this bearish times. Bitcoin dominance rate reached a high of 2 months yesterday, to 42.74%, and stands at 42.50% as of the time of writing, according to CoinMarketCap data.



The Dominance Index is an indicator that tracks the percent of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization contributed by the leading cryptocurrency. So, a rising dominance rate might mean the demand for Bitcoin is greater than the demand for other innovations.

Percentage of total market capitalization (dominance):

For example, last year, Bitcoin’s dominance rate increased from 38% to 66.5% in six months, driving its value up from USD 1,760 to nearly USD 20,000. But it must be noted that it also tends to rise during risk aversion periods, when investors move out of high-risk alternative cryptocurrencies and into bitcoin, and then possibly on to fiat currency.

Possibly, it would seem that risk aversion is to blame for this dominance rate rising this time, given how much the prices have fallen. A lot of investors seem to prefer cash over any of the cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin included. However, if prices start to rise along with Bitcoin’s dominance rate, it may mean that the cryptocurrencies markets have bottomed out.

But the rising of the Bitcoin dominance rate also means that we still have time until the Flippening. It is a possible future event when Ethereum overtakes Bitcoin to become the most valuable cryptocurrency in terms of market capitalization. The community argues that, with the fact that Bitcoin’s strongest claim to glory is first to market dominance, the Flippening is only a matter of time.



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Author: Sead Fadilpasic
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