Crypto Friendly Candidates Take California and Colorado

The crypto space has scored two big wins in this mid-term election as two crypto friendly candidates become governors of California and Colorado.

Gavin Newsom scored big, winning 59% of the votes. The Democrat defeated John Cox (R) to become California’s governor.

He has the backing of the Winklevoss twins, who collectively donated $116,800 to Newsom’s campaign up to December 2017.

That was in fiat, but he has a BitPay page where US citizens can donate in crypto, limited to bitcoin or bitcoin cash.

Newsom does not appear to talk much about blockchain tech, with his support for this space being more subtle. In 2014, he said:

“I should promote the technology ever so subtly by saying I’ll accept bitcoin in the campaign.”

Jared Polis has taken over Colorado, wining by 51.6% against Republican Walker Stapleton who managed only 45%.

Polis has been a big supporter of this space since at least 2014. His campaign page has a whole section on blockchain, where he says:

“My goal is to establish Colorado as a national hub for blockchain innovation in business and government. I believe strong leadership will put Colorado at the forefront of innovation in this sector – encouraging companies to flock to the state and establishing government applications that save taxpayers money and create value for Colorado residents.”

He too accepts donations through BitPay which currently is limited to only bitcoin and bitcoin cash, no ethereum.

Most of the above members of the Blockchain Congressional Caucus won in this election, but how the above list of 18 Congressmen – not one woman – will change, remains to be seen.

Polis has obviously left to become governor. So the above list will need to be updated. We’d like a 10x increase. A crypto sweep of congress.

Alas, the picture was a bit more mixed. No new anti-crypto candidate has entered congress as far as we can see. There were some who had anti-bitcoin campaigns, but they lost to neutral candidates. There were some who had pro-crypto campaigns but also lost to neutral candidates.

The most hated congressman in the crypto space, Brad Sherman, won 70% of the vote. He has been sitting in congress since 1997, hogging the seat and in effect stealing it from a new generation.

California’s 30th congressional district apparently did not care about all sorts of allegations. The #metoo movement seemingly having no power there, so we might have to listen to more Sherman drivel.

There hasn’t been any other big movement as far as we can see, with it perhaps a bit too early to say whether the American legislature has become overall more friendly to this space. The two big governorship wins might suggest so, but the picture is mixed.

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Augur Accurately Predicts 2018 US Elections

The blockchain-based prediction market Augur, whose native token REP is ranked #48 with a market cap of USD 163 million as of 7 November 2018, accurately predicted the 6 November United States elections. During the morning of the election, before any polls closed, Augur predicted a 74% chance that Democrats would take the House, and a 90% chance that Republicans would take the Senate.

After President Trump’s declaration hours ago of a “Big Victory” after the Repulicans won the Senate, Augur’s predictions have now been confirmed as fact.

There were USD 1.366 million of bets at stake on the ‘Which party will control the House after 2018 US Midterm Election?‘ prediction market. This represented 48.5% of the USD 2.804 million of money at stake across all of Augur’s prediction markets. Even though the House has been confirmed as a win for the Democrats, the odds for the Democrats winning sits at 97%, leaving a 3% spread that investors can easily profit on, so money continues to pour into the contract. However, the prediction market will not be closing out and disbursing funds until 10 December 2018, so users will have to wait for their profits.

The Augur prediction market for the Senate has much less money at stake, just over USD 10,000, likely since pollsters agreed that it was nearly certain the Republicans would win the Senate. Thus, less money is staked on Augur prediction markets where outcomes are more certain.

Based on data collected by The Block Crypto, it seems that Augur’s election predictions are a reflection of forecasts by expert pollsters like FiveThirtyEight. As FiveThirtyEight adjusted its forecast for the House during election night, the Augur prediction market followed in lockstep.

The prediction markets for the 2020 United States Presidential election have already begun, with just over USD 5,000 staked on the market for whether Donald Trump will be re-elected. Currently, Augur thinks Trump only has a 36% chance.

Aside from political election predictions, the biggest markets on Augur are for cryptocurrency price forecasts. USD 552,000 is staked on whether Ethereum will be USD 500 or more at the end of 2018, USD 103,000 is staked on whether Ethereum will exceed USD 1,000 at the end of 2018, USD 279,000 is staked on whether the REP token will exceed USD 32 at the end of 2018, and USD 39,000 is staked on whether Bitcoin will exceed USD 20,000 at the end of 2018. Due to the continued cryptocurrency bear market, Augur is predicting that most of these questions will verify as false. When aggregated, the Augur markets for cryptocurrency price forecasts have about USD 1 million at stake.

Author: Zachary
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